Tag: Kentucky '08

Who Had the Bigger Win Tonight?

Who won bigger in today's primaries? 100% of the vote is in from Kentucky, 66% is in from Oregon:

  • Hillary won 51 delegates so far, Obama 35.
  • Hillary earned 650,000 votes, Obama has gotten 475,000.

Hillary won a lot more votes and more delegates tonight.

She's tonight's winner.

Kentucky: 100% of vote:

  • Hillary: 459,145 votes * 65% * 37 delegates
  • Obama: 209,771 votes * 30% * 14 delegates
  • Counties: Hillary wins all but 2

Oregon: 66% of votes in

  • Obama: 272,000 votes * 58% * 21 delegates
  • Hillary: 196,000 votes * 42% * 14 delegates
  • Counties: Obama wins 16; Hillary wins 13 (1 tied, 4 still out)


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KY, Oregon and Delegate Math

Polls close at 6pm ET in most of Kentucky and 8pm PT in almost all of Oregon.

There are 200 superdelegates who have not yet declared. Superdelegates can change their mind up until the convention. In addition to pledged delegate counts, they can consider electability in November, the electoral map, the popular vote and anything else they deem significant in arriving at their decision.

But, since the media is so focused on delegate math, here are the numbers from an article in today's Washington Post.

  • Kentucky has 51 pledged delegates, Oregon has 52.
  • 200 Superdelegates have yet to choose a candidate.
  • Both are closed primaries open only to Democrats.
  • The remaining primaries are: Puerto Rico on June 1 with 55 pledged delegates and Montana and South Dakota on June 3. Montana has 16 pledged delegates and S.D. has 15.
  • Hillary's campaign says the number of pledged delegates necessary to win the nomination is 2210, including Florida and Michigan. Obama's campaign says it's 2025 because FL and MI don't count.


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Kentucky Demographics and Voter Stats

Kentucky demographics favor Hillary Clinton.

Obama has a slight chance in Louisville, an urban area, but very little elsewhere in the state.

Trade with China is important to KY since its farmers grow tobacco for China and sell them a lot of Maker's Mark and Wild Turkey bourbon. About $300 million a year's worth.

Kentucky, like other states, will set a record for voting tomorrow, but new registratons are lower there than we've ssen in other states.

A record 2.8 million Kentuckians are registered to vote in the primary election. Of those, 1.6 million are Democrats. And, despite the close presidential primary, the number of new registered voters hasn't skyrocketed. In the past six months, 16,000 people have registered, 13,000 of them as Democrats.

A map of Kentucky is below the fold.

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Kentucky Hosts NRA Convention This Weekend, McCain to Speak

The NRA is holding its annual meeting in Louisville, KY this weekend. John McCain will be speaking. He has tended to campaign against Obama rather than Hillary. There are Democrats who belong to the NRA. The NRA backs Democrats who support their issue. If McCain attacks Obama on gun rights, will he cost him any primary votes?

Here's who the NRA backed in 2006:

The NRA has returned the favor. In this year's election, the group is backing Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, Oklahoma Rep. Dan Boren, Tennessee Rep. John Tanner and West Virginia Rep. Alan Mollohan, among others. In gubernatorial races, the NRA has endorsed Democrats in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming, and Bill Richardson, the former Clinton energy secretary and cabinet member, in New Mexico.

"The NRA is not an affiliate of the Republican party," said Grover Norquist, a conservative activist who also is an NRA board member. "They endorse incumbent Democrats who have voted with them on their issue. They understand that the first time they oppose a Democrat who has been supportive of the gun issue, they lose that D vote."


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Kentucky By the Numbers

According to the Kentucky Secretary of State, here is the breakdown of registered voters as of May 20, 2008:

  • Total: 2,857,231
    Democrats 1,629,845
    Republicans 1,040,438
    Indpendents 186,948
  • Male 1,344,579
    Female 1,512,503

Absentee ballots were available starting May 2 and have to be received by May 20, the date of the primary. In the 2004 primary (pdf), there were 563, 000 registered voters and a 23% turnout (375,000 voted in the Democratic primary, a 24% turnout.) Women and men voted in roughly equal numbers.

It's a closed primary and party registration changes had to be in by December 31. Registration ended April 22, 2008. Independents cannot vote in the primary.

My earlier post on Kentucky demographics is here.

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Kentucky 's Demographics

Five threads in one day for John Edwards is plenty. Even the Washington Post says his endorsement will have a short news cycle hit and in the end not matter much.

So, onto Kentucky. Hillary got the endorsement today of four former Democratic KY governors. The demographics favor her. And, while a record number have registered to vote, only 16,000 new voters registered since January. [More...]

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