One day to go. In January, the polling for the New Hampshire primary had Obama leading by an average of 8.3 points. Sounds scary right? Let's look at those numbers - Obama was predicted to get 38%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 18%, Richardson 6% and 8% undecided. The results? Obama got 37%, Edwards got 17%, Richardson got 5%. So far so good for the polls. But Clinton got 39%. She got the undecided voters.

What does this tell us about tomorrow? It tells me Obama is definitely going to win the popular vote. Why? Because even if McCain were to get every undecided voter (which he is not), Obama is over 50 in almost every poll. USA Today/Gallup has Obama at 53. ABC/WaPo has Obama at 53. NBC/WSJ has Obama at 51. Ras has Obama at 51. CNN has Obama at 53. Pew has Obama at 52. CBS has Obama at 54.

I stick by my prediction -- Obama by 6, 52.5 - 46.5. I predict he wins FL, OH, VA, CO, NV, NM and of course PA. I predict 325+ EVs. I predict 8 Senate pickups (AK, CO, NM, NH, VA, NC, MN and OR) and a runoff in GA. I predict Dem Gary Trauner wins Dick Cheney's old Congressional seat in Wyoming.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Besides the Presidential race, the races I will be most interested in are (1) Jim Martin's attempt to unseat the execrable Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race, where Chambliss has a narrow lead. Winning this one would be sweet. It is probably heading for a runoff as the winner must clear 50% in Georgia. (2) Al Franken's bid to win the Minnesota Senate seat once held by the late Paul Wellstone from Norm Coleman. It's tight, with a strong 3rd Party challenger as well.(3) Gary Trauner's bid to capture the Wyoming House seat once held by Dick Cheney. It's a close race. (4) Darcy Burner's bid to defeat Dave Reichert in WA-08. Burner did not run the campaign I would have recommended (too soft on Reichert imo) but she would be a great addition in the House. (5) Joe Garcia's bid to defeat one of the Diaz Balart brothers in Miami. Joe is a good guy and funny to boot.

What races will you be following?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Jeralyn continues to beat the drum to blame the expected Republican landslide loss in this election on Sarah Palin. This is both wrong and wrongheaded.

First why it is wrong. The polls tell the tale. Too often people like to look at favorable and unfavorables as stand alone from the top line numbers. The reverse is true imo. Favorables follow the toplines. It is not the other way around. And the topline numbers simply disprove Jeralyn's thesis. On September 3, the night of Sarah Palin's acceptance speech, Obama led McCain by 5.8%. On September 11, McCain led by 2.5%. We all know what happened on September 15. On that day, McCain led by 2%. One week later, Obama had regained the lead. By the end of the month, Obama led by 5. By October 15, Obama led by 8. And very little has changed since then. More . . .

The final USA Today/Gallup Poll is out. Obama is ahead of McCain by 11 points -- 53% to 42%. This is interesting:

Obama's favorable rating is 62% -- the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup's final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

USA Today's Washington bureau chief, Susan Page writes: [More...]

I don't think there's any doubt that if, as virtually universally anticipated, McCain loses the presidential election on Tuesday, it's because of two things: the economy and his choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate.

Columnist Earl Ofari Hutchinson puts them in perspective, by asking, what if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his running mate. I've wondered the same thing but he says it much better and more succinctly than I would, so read it and see if you don't find yourself nodding along in agreement with his logic. I sure did. [More...]

The San Francisco Chronicle examines the changing electoral map. Highlights:

In the RealClearPolitics' average of polls today, Obama was ahead, at least slightly, in most swing states: Colorado (5.5 percentage points), New Mexico (7.3), Nevada (5.8), Virginia (3.8), Pennsylvania (7), Florida (4.2), Ohio (4.2) and North Carolina (0.3). McCain had edges in Arizona (3.5 points), Georgia (3), Montana (3.8), Missouri (0.7) and Indiana (0.5).

Early voting indicators are problematic for McCain:

In North Carolina, 2.6 million people have already voted, with Democrats outpacing Republicans 51 percent to 31 percent, according to state figures. In Colorado, where more than half of the vote may come in before election day, a recent Associated Press poll showed Obama leading 57 percent to 34 percent among early voters.

More...

Bruce Springsteen dedicated "Working on A Dream" today to Sen. Barack Obama in Cleveland.

Here's the video of Bruce introducing Obama, Michelle and their daughters and Obama thanking Bruce and introducing Patti and the Springsteens' three sons. Here's another video with part of The Promised Land.

Obama's speech can be viewed in its entirety at WKYC Cleveland. Part 1 is here, follow the links for parts 2 to 4.

Timroff at Daily Kos has pictures and a recap of the event.

CNN has released more results from its poll today. The initial results (pdf)have Obama ahead by 8 points among likely voters and 11 points among registered voters.

The additional poll results (pdf) released at 8pm ET include answers to this question:

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that each of the following candidates has the personality and leadership qualities a President should have.

The results for Sarah Palin:

Likely Voters:
Agree has qualities: 37%
Disagree has qualities: 63%
No opinion: 1%

Registered Voters:
Agree has qualities: 40%
Disagree has qualities: 57%
No opinion: 2%

That's an average of 60% who think she lacks the necesary leadership qualities . [More...]

The latest Colorado Poll released (Denver Post-Mason Dixon) has Sen. Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5 points.

Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent. Colorado unaffiliated voters, the critical voting bloc making up more than one-third of the state electorate, are backing Obama 57 percent to 32 percent. Four percent of those polled, however, were still undecided.

I noted Friday that the Obamas have made four visits to Colorado in the past week and that Michelle Obama will be here Monday night.

McCain and Palin have added last minute Colorado stops to their itineraries. Palin will be in Colorado Springs Monday while John McCain will be coming to Grand Junction, another Republican stronghold at noon on Election Day.

One thing is for sure, if Obama does not win this election, the WaPo/ABC poll will have a lot of egg on its face. Today they have Obama leading McCain by 54-43 among likely voters. Earlier today, the WaPo pollster Jon Cohen wrote:

[I]f the trustworthy polls continue showing Obama ahead and McCain wins, it would be a monumental failure for political scientists, reporters and pollsters alike -- an indictment worse than New Hampshire, worse even than 1948. I think the quality pollsters have done a good, professional job this year. I don't think we'll get bitten. Even so, I'll be a little worried until it's all over. I'm not sure what kind of night I'll have on Tuesday. But I'm sure I'm going to have a nervous one on Monday.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Fred Eshelman, "a wealthy North Carolina based pharmaceutical executive," finances a conservative group that claims to communicate "with a zingy edge and a sense of humor." An example of that humor is an attack ad airing today. The ad exploits Joe Biden's prediction that the next president will be "tested" by an international crisis.

The script of the latest attack ad is less provocative than than the images used. Along with footage of the Twin Towers, the commercial is shot stylistically like the Fox show “24” with shaky camera images of dark-skinned men building a bomb, and ends with the bomb’s detonation in a city. The ad also uses an image of Obama next to one of the terrorists driving a van.

[more ...]

The final CNN poll appears to push leaners, leaving only 1% undecided and having Obama at 53 and McCain at 46. This is significant because it puts the poll to the test - it leaves no room for "undecideds breaking to McCain." It has McCain at a realistic number - McCain is not going to pull 42% on Tuesday.

While there is divergence on the margin of victory, there is not a single poll that has McCain winning the election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only