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Tuesday Open Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 12:57:53 PM EST
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    Tuesday Open Thread | 142 comments (142 topical)

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    As a diehard Broncos and Nuggets fan... (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 01:15:22 PM EST
    ... and general sports' fan, with the NBA season opener tomorrow night, I am nauseated and imsomnia'ed by this election and am barely paying attention to sports beyond watching the home team games (unheard of for me). Didn't see one pitch of the world series...

    Done and doing my canvassing here in Douglas County (very red) and am getting discouraged.

    I fear that Romney wins with a narrow margin of victory in CO.

    My happy fantasy is that Obama sweeps the East Coast in the early returns. Almost seems like FL is more likely than CO these days.

    A silver lining to the CO polls showing narrow Romney/tie, is that Bennet was - 3 2 years ago in the polls and Bennet won, and the CW was that Latinos were underpolled. Have the pollsters figured out how to overcome their inaccuracies in the last campaigns?

    Grandma Vera would tell you to take (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:00:25 PM EST
    heart in those red colorado places, and she would speak of past victories.  Did you get Udall elected or not?  Phuck the crazies.  We will always have us some crazies.  Without them there would be a crazy vacuum, who wants that :)?

    Parent
    If votes were weighted by the loudness... (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:48:24 PM EST
    ... and obnoxiousness of the voters, Romney would win CO by 40%.

    From my wife's anecdotal evidence from her book club, there will be a lot of split suburban households with many women voting Obama thanks to the Akin-ness of the GOP.

    Parent

    My completely unscientific (none / 0) (#16)
    by indy in sc on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:53:21 PM EST
    and anecdotal evidence says the same.  I was sitting on an airplane in Georgia--not exactly a swing state--in front of a white couple that appeared to be in their mid to late 50's.  They were discussing the fact that they had just early voted.  Without naming who they had voted for, the man told the woman that he bets his candidate will beat her candidate.  She proclaimed the opposite, but conceded that his candidate would win Georgia.  My assumption from that convo is that she voted Obama and he voted Romney.  I foresee a lot of split households this election.

    Parent
    Magster, I lived in Highlands Ranch (none / 0) (#9)
    by easilydistracted on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:26:39 PM EST
    some years ago and I recall Douglas County rather red then. I think I must have been the only Dem within a ten mile radius of my residence. Anyway, do you think it has something to do with the large contingent of residents working for Lockheed Martin and other defense contractors in the area? Combine that with the ranchers in and around Parker and Castle Rock and its a haven for repubs

    Parent
    I lived in Castle Rock when I lived out (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:19:32 PM EST
    there, from '93 to '05. From what I saw, I think you are right - lots of defense workers, many of them ex-military. And defense work brings with it a certain income level as well. It also was fertile ground for the TABOR amendment types.

    Parent
    I ended up voting for TABOR though too (none / 0) (#24)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:39:09 PM EST
    As the child of a home builder.  The massive subdivisions that were built full of houses being sold subprime had all the monies going to the cronies who were building them.  And they paid the legislature to ensure that paying for the new schools and fire departments and the police departments needed were never going to touch their profits.  They were making a killing while established residents were left going into debt to pay for all these new schools and needed services.

    Meanwhile older homeowners moving to retirement communties couldn't get anything for their homes because they could not offer people subprime deals like the big box subdivision builders were offering with their "banking" connections.  For all those reasons I voted for TABOR.  It was the only way to end the big box builder big box banking taxpayer ripoff insanity.

    And while they were throwing up all those houses those of us who were born and raised there knew the aquifer could not sustain the communities that were thrown up on the plains and now it isn't.  In the end those properties will only be worth a fraction of what the big box builders originally got for them.  They could end up suburban ghost towns, but that is for the residents of Colorado to try to figure out.

    Parent

    yeesh... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:45:13 PM EST
    ... that aquifer stuff is scary. Parker built a reservoir originally slated to be a source of municipal watering, and it's turned into a big ol' reservoir with other suburbs buying rights to the water.

    Parent
    I was just about to ask you how it was (none / 0) (#31)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:56:09 PM EST
    Going for Parker handling the water demand.  Very grateful for Parker's success!!!  Its success may be the linchpin for many of the communities they built on the Eastern plains of Colorado Springs to survive.

    A few of our friends bought out there, excited to get into a new home they were sure could only increase in value.  Immediately though the available schools were bursting, overflowing, classrooms hitting around 40 students in some instances.  And then their homeowners insurance began to skyrocket because of the distance to the nearest fire department.  Only one was able to sell and get out, the rest who are military still have had to hang onto the homes, rent them out, attempt to get assigned to Fort Carson and get back to at least live in them.  I don't want them to lose their investment, but there will be no quick profits like so many of them assumed and were told to expect.

    Parent

    They built a new High School.... (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:06:51 PM EST
    for our neighborhood in Parker that opened only 5 years ago, and it is now at 2000 ++ students. Crazy!

    I like living here notwithstanding the loud Repubs. Love our little church, love our neighbors on our cul-de-sac, pretty decent school and nice open spaces.

    Parent

    I used to go to the dog park in Parker a lot! (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:14:22 PM EST
    And other places there too. Really liked that area. It was amazing how much it grew int he years I was there. While my house was being built I used to drive down Parker Rd from Cherry Creek Res area to Castle Rock, with nary a stop sign. Such a pretty drive.

     The mountains are wonderful of course, but I had an affinity for the high plains as well. And I really miss Castlewood Canyon, another place my dog and I used to frequent.

    Parent

    Castlewood Canyon is a gem... (none / 0) (#45)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:18:21 PM EST
    So many afternoons with feet dangling in Cherry Creek and the family black lab going nuts chasing things floating in the creek.

    Parent
    TABOR was never going (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:56:50 PM EST
    to do a thing for cronyism.  Ever.  TABOR was always an arm of the Grover Norquist school of drowning government and it has crippled Colorado in a big way.  As it was intended.  I have never, ever heard of this particular justification for the abomination that is TABOR.  

    What I am reading here makes as much sense as the for and against education spending distraction that is being used here in Maryland for Question 7 (Gaming Expansion).  

    All of Question 7 funding -- for and against -- is from gambling interests.  And neither side gives a rats a$$ what happens with education funding.  

    Parent

    Hmmm...do not know enough to argue with you (none / 0) (#34)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:00:05 PM EST
    But I sure saw a lot of tiny older homes in established Denver neighborhoods being sold for way more than I could afford, which is how I ended up in my new big box tract home in Castle Rock.

    Parent
    Agreed (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:11:12 PM EST
    Home values in my neighborhood (City Park/Park Hill area) skyrocketed.  They often beat or matched the inflated prices of new McMansions.  The difference is I think McMansions had a lifespan of only about 20-25 years.  

    On the other hand suburban subdivisions -- new and old (er... 1980's old) -- were a more viable option.  My sister went 1980's old because it was closer to the city.  But neither -- or rather none -- of those things had a single solitary thing to do with TABOR's inception.  

    I never knew it was sold that way, though.

    Parent

    I missed that other sales-pitch as well (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by christinep on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:25:42 PM EST
    All I know is that Tabor equals Norquist in more crippling ways than one.  We've been trying to claw our way out of it--ballot measure by mitigating ballot measure--since we voted for the albatross.

    Parent
    Me neither. What year was it passed? (none / 0) (#44)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:16:22 PM EST
    I don't know if I just can't remember the arguments, or if I was not there yet! What I remember is what you posted above, it being a Jack Bruce Norquist style drown the gov thing.

    Parent
    I didn't say it had anything to do with (none / 0) (#49)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:28:01 PM EST
    the TABOR inception, but it had a great deal to with why TABOR found the support that it did and passed.  And it ended the cronies throwing up houses like so many cardboard boxes and not planning for and paying for the schools and services needed, because the invisible hand took over and did what it needed to do.

    Parent
    Jeez, MT (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:57:23 PM EST
    The only "invisible hand" TABOR has is the one on the throat of the Colorado.  I believe you when you say why you voted for it.  I just never knew it was sold that way.  And you may not want to believe that you fell for a sales pitch, but that is what I strongly believe. And it wasn't a sales pitch that was used in my neck of the woods.  The sales pitch here was that our property taxes were too high (which, frankly, was also untrue).

    In the meantime.  Here is what TABOR has really done.  Here is a detailed analysis of what TABOR has done.  I admit that I've scanned the report and not read it for analysis but I don't see anywhere in this that would account for your "invisible hand".  I invite you to show me.

    Parent

    I'm sorry, it wasn't sold that way to me (none / 0) (#61)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:07:33 PM EST
    It was experienced that way though by me and many other people.  My grandparents were trying to retire while their taxes were going through the roof.  My father being a builder knew exactly why the tax bills were going through the roof too, because the new subdivision needs and services were not being paid for out of the big profits that the builders were raking in.  They in fact lobbied for and blocked legislation that would have fixed the problem.  Tabor was the only way to end everything being heaped onto taxpayers while giant contractors and banks raked in nothing but massive profits and were not responsible for the livability of the new communities they were creating.  TABOR passed because Coloradans refused to be raped by those people any longer and nobody else would hold them accountable in any way.

    I know that TABOR has created problems too, but nobody gave Colorado taxpayers an option in this to stop the crazy.

    Parent

    Show me (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:16:35 PM EST
    the research that confirms that TABOR did what you say it did.  I'm willing to "listen."  

    Parent
    One more thing (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:23:47 PM EST
    TABOR passed because the idea of paying taxes has been demonized instead of being acknowledged as the price of living in a civilized society.  Often people are selfish and short-sighted.

    Parent
    Colorado is a purple state (none / 0) (#107)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:02:08 PM EST
    The people of Colorado, the voters...aren't stupid.  Just because you don't like what they chose for themselves doesn't make them wrong.

    Parent
    It is a fact (none / 0) (#119)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:36:43 PM EST
    that taxes in general are demonized.  It is a fact that even Social Security is constantly being threatened with the taxes boogey man.  

    It is a fact that you are not stupid.  It is a fact that TABOR is bad -- really, really, really bad -- for Colorado.  You voted for it and you defend that vote because of what you observed and assume the two things are related.  Now defend it with research.

    Frankly, it might even be a relief to know that some good -- however localized -- came out of that debacle.  

    Parent

    Why hasn't Social Security been touched? (none / 0) (#121)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:47:55 PM EST
    Because it works and it is worth the costs.  Why did TABOR pass and why have Colorado voters voted to keep their right to make their taxation choices?  Because prior to TABOR for some reason Colorado government was acting out of control and broken.  That is why it passed, that is why the voters have kept it many times.  It isn't just about the demonization of taxes, Colorado votes voted to allow the state to keep surplus during these troubled times.  What it was and is about was the broken unaccountable government that had begun to take hold and many of the bureaucrats had lost their minds.  County commissioners with expensive private parking spaces and all sorts of wild indulgences in El Paso CO along with building a new very expensive bigger prison even after the voters said NO! to it.  Those are all the realities that spawned TABOR support.  I promise you many dems voted for it but would never admit it openly.  Everyone had kind of had enough though and we were all being nickeled and dimed to death.

    Parent
    You just keep telling yourself that (none / 0) (#125)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:58:37 PM EST
    And justify not doing the research.  And I never said that the voters were stupid, by the way.  But smart people do stupid things all the time.  Just like everyone else.

    Parent
    City Park is prime real estate too (none / 0) (#52)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:36:54 PM EST
    Location location location.....and not subject to simple struggling lives much :)  Doubt there were many subprimes available in your neighborhood but understand why what was going on propped up City Park.  It was gutting the worth of lesser desirable older neighborhoods though.

    Parent
    My childhood home...Park Hill (none / 0) (#67)
    by christinep on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:20:31 PM EST
    And, Park Hill Elementary too!  

    Parent
    It's a lovely area (none / 0) (#71)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:26:36 PM EST
    My particular section was a bit run down when I first bought in, but I lucked out.  

    Parent
    I have a couple of HS friends... (none / 0) (#73)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:30:12 PM EST
    who are on the Park Hill Elementary facebook page. As a person who always enjoys a small world, did you graduate from HS in 1985 or 1986?

    Parent
    Here is what TABOR did (2.33 / 3) (#80)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:44:42 PM EST
    The most well-known example of TABOR legislation is in the state of Colorado.[1] In 1992, the voters of the state approved a measure which amended Article X of the Colorado Constitution that restricts revenues for all levels of government (state, local, and schools).[2] Under TABOR, state and local governments cannot raise tax rates without voter approval and cannot spend revenues collected under existing tax rates if revenues grow faster than the rate of inflation and population growth, without voter approval.[2] Revenue in excess of the TABOR limit, commonly referred to as the "TABOR surplus," must be refunded to taxpayers, unless voters approve a revenue change as an offset in a referendum.[3] Under TABOR, the state has returned more than $2 billion to taxpayers.[2]

    Link

    I lived in Littleton from '87 to 2004 and voted for it. And yes, it was meant to make government rein in its spending.

    Parent

    And if the cities/states (1.00 / 2) (#81)
    by jimakaPPJ on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:45:46 PM EST
    that are going bankrupt had had a TABOR in place they wouldn't be in the shape they're in.

    Parent
    Laughable. (none / 0) (#86)
    by shoephone on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:05:46 PM EST
    sj links to actual policy studies that detail the effects TABOR has had on public services, and you link to... Wikipedia... to drive home the conservative shibboleth that tax cuts are all that really matter in life.

    Laughable.

    Parent

    That's not true! (none / 0) (#94)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:49:45 PM EST
    Cheap gas prices also matter to them, too!
    ;-D


    Parent
    Heh...something that you and I agree on (none / 0) (#108)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:09:21 PM EST
    Fancy that this close to a major election.  And we are just going to get smacked down here saying that taxation was getting completely out of control prior to TABOR.  Coloradans have adjusted their TABOR to meet the states needs too but I notice that nobody wants to go back to Wild Wild West unaccountable government.  I notice that Coloradans have said that they will be keeping their voting right to choose their taxation.   I'm not for small government, but I'm for government that is accountable and works because it has the incentive to do those things and has to answer to the voters.

    Parent
    TABOR had a temporary suspension (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:56:31 PM EST
    of the ratchet down effect for only 5 years.  That's all.  It doesn't adjust The Abomination itself.  The suspension passed because of the efforts of an unusual coaltion of Democrats, Republicans, business, churches and social organizations.  And it was still a near thing.

    And seriously?  "Wild Wild West unaccountable government"?  That's what you're going with?  Well, maybe you're right.  The everyday citizen "Wild Wild West" now gets to choose not to be taxed but they still want roads and snow removal and schools and fire and police protection.

    But you're not alone in loving Tabor.  The Cato Institute loves it.  Also, apparently, Jim.  But they don't pretend it's about "choosing" taxation.  They know it's about limiting it.  

    Parent

    Go ahead and demonize me (none / 0) (#131)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 05:59:43 AM EST
    But you really need to take this up with Colorado voters, and I don't love TABOR.  All I did was explain why it passed and why it held.  If you don't like it you may find ways to make Colorado government accountable to and not abusing of the taxpayers.  I would have voted for any better solution, but there didn't seem to be one, certainly none was offered.  Stop complaining though and fix it if you really care so much.  Just sitting on a blog demonizing those who explain to you why it had such widespread support does nothing.  If you want to fix this though you will have to get really honest about what was happening between those who governed and those who had to pay.

    Parent
    Hyperbole much? (none / 0) (#137)
    by sj on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:57:21 AM EST
    I think you are seriously wrong about TABOR.  If you think calling you out to defend your position is demonizing then... okay, I guess.  I dub thee demon ::rolls eyes::

    You talk about "widespread support".  I'm talking about catastrophic results (that's a fact).  Inevitable, obvious results that one could see coming a mile away (that's an opinion).  

    Don't talk to me about fixing it.  That's a diversionary tactic.  Neither you nor I are living in Colorado right now.  Neither one of us can do a darn thing to fix it or to keep it.  

    But talk talk talk talk talk.  Maybe you think that if you keep talking I might not notice that all you have is assertion after assertion after assertion with not a single thing to back it up.  

    You're a pretty smart person and you are very often right.  [And by that I mean that you mostly agree with me :)]  Apparently it is difficult for you to admit when you may have been wrong.  I get that.  I do.  I tend to choke on it, too.  So choke me.  Prove I'm wrong.  Show me the research or else just stop talking nonsense.  It's becoming  word salad.

    Parent

    Something that happened to me prior to TABOR (none / 0) (#109)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:23:54 PM EST
    too,  I had adopted a dog from the local shelter.  I had done that a few years before I married and it was under my maiden name.  He was an old dog when I adopted him.  I married, but I married in Colorado so they knew my new last name and because I registered to vote they knew my new address.  The dog had passed from old age very recently when an animal control officer knocked on my married residence door.  He told me that I had not renewed the dog's license and he was there to write me a ticket, for a dead dog.  The number of government employees and fees and penalties had gone crazy, I couldn't believe they had an animal control officer dedicated to tracking down people who may have not licensed their dog.

    Parent
    MT, "Ask not for whom the bell tolls. (none / 0) (#142)
    by jimakaPPJ on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 10:41:29 AM EST
    It tolls for thee."

    And all the rest of us who live where government goes wild.

    SJ - Don't know where you live but MT is correct in her comments re the explosion of government that birthed TABOR. I left in 2004 and still miss the place and people but high taxes and high snow falls don't mix well with retirement age and incomes.

    And I stand by my comments that many "places" went out and spent money based on the expectation that revenues would increase forever. That has proved wrong and they are in desperate straits.

    Even worse, the money was spent on things that should have been way down on the "do" list. Draw up a list of what the NY area has spent money on the last 20 years or so and ask if it would have been better spent on burying utilities, sump pumps that work for tunnels, barrier islands, etc...

    TABOR was designed to prevent that. That CO has weakened it only reflects the huge influx of people who fled CA's high home prices in the early 2000's and, in the process, bid up CO real estate in what I found to be a wonderful process.

    Parent

    I've lived in Parker since 2002. (none / 0) (#13)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:45:35 PM EST
    I think the red-ness of the southern Denver suburbs are a remnant of white flight from bussing laws in the 80s, a place for land developers and real estate speculators to work, and otherwise just a haven for religious rich people transplanting from other states.

    In 2004, Kerry got 30% in Douglas and El Paso (Colo. Spgs.) and Obama got 40%-ish in those 2 counties in 2008. Considering the margin of Obama's victory in 2008, I'll be interested in seeing whether Obama gets 35% ++. I don't see the same 2008 enthusiasm here, but Obama supporters working harder than I do have told me that the Obama GOTV is more sophisticated this time around, and that the DougCo outreach is more efficient (e.g.: using people's houses as canvassing HQ's instead of more isolated field offices, and better methods of targeting Obama supporters).

    We shall see.....

    Parent

    The 40ish percentage in El Paso County is (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by easilydistracted on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:19:04 PM EST
    really surprising given all the retired Airforce and Army brass around the Springs. Not to mention the defense contractors also in the area. I suspect it'll be considerably less this time. The potential of a bazillion dollar defense budget from the Mittster has got the defense contractor community abuzz. Many contractors are beginning to worry over financial impacts of the drawdown in Afghanistan -- my employer included. Its a dog whistle direct to the contractor community whom in turn, pressure their employees to voting "in their best interests." (I guess contractors are proof the Government does play a role in job creation -- even if the jobs are of the necessary evil kind, right?).  

    Parent
    Just double checked.... (none / 0) (#48)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:26:03 PM EST
    ... 39.86 for Obama in 2008 in El Paso county.

    Parent
    Plus (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by christinep on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:16:18 PM EST
    OFA has also had an exceptional focus back on the original Dem base:  The City...in early October, the Sloan's Lake (north Denver ) rally after downtown Auraria rallies in early summer, and then the City Park (East Denver) rally a week ago, and -- in a few hours, a rally  at Manual HS with Explainer in Chief Big Bill Clinton ( after a rally in the coming hour with the former President in Commerce City.)

    In short:  Drive up the City vote.  To counter the Douglas County universe.  Or send Michelle Obama as Goodwill Ambassador to the Castle Rock places, etc. (Already done.)

    So, magster, when the Douglas Cty Red gets to you...walk/canvass in the City for an energizer.  (Admittedly, there have been a few Romney signs even here; and, I actually saw a Romney canvasser when knocking on doors myself last weekend.  He represented the RNC.)

    Parent

    I've noticed more Rmoney signs... (none / 0) (#92)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:45:29 PM EST
    in my neighborhood (S. CapHill/7th Street Historical District) than Obama ones, which I find somewhat strange.  Not surprised that is also the case in Cherry Creek and Country Club though.  

    Parent
    Think back four years (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:54:29 PM EST
    when the yard sign issue first came up.

    The response from the Obama campaign was...Yard signs don't vote. Money into other things proved better spent then. Now we'll see if it works again.

    Parent

    Not IMO (none / 0) (#26)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:43:14 PM EST
    I watched Parker be built, some of my cousins bought and live out there.  They are horrible with their finances, the whole branch.  They always want something for nothing.  They are very religious also and it is always up to God to fix their poor decisions or it is someone elses fault.  It was new houses cheap with easy mortgages to be had that I saw spur Parker growth.

    Parent
    There's certainly that element of Parkerites.... (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:49:41 PM EST
    And as a divorce lawyer, I see many of them. But I'd say there's many more of my neighbors who have strong roots here and our neighborhood is weathering the foreclosure crisis pretty well.

    Parent
    Glad to hear it too (none / 0) (#55)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:49:37 PM EST


    Parent
    Sandy update (5.00 / 2) (#33)
    by Zorba on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:59:06 PM EST
    Out here, we have just gotten electricity.  Those who live closer to the coast are still having problems.  We did have some snow this AM, but it did not stick much.

    Thanks for checking in, Zorba. (5.00 / 3) (#35)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:06:25 PM EST
    Good to hear you are okay.

    Waiting to hear from BTD, kdog, anne, vml, and so many more in Sandy's path. Hope everyone is doing okay.

    Parent

    I believe that as long as ... (none / 0) (#51)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:31:56 PM EST
    ... nobody gets between kdog, the bong and some tasty herb during this storm, he'll be just fine.

    I wish we'd hear from Anne, so I can ask her how she somehow managed to continue posting for a while with the power out. When our power goes down at home, I'm KO'd, because the surrounding valley walls are too tall and steep for my laptop to pick up and hold any nearby signals from neighboring areas.

    And has anyone heard from lentinel? He worried me some with his comments yesterday and the day before regarding public warnings about the approaching storm, and I do hope that he heeded those warnings and is safe and sound.

    Parent

    I was posting from my phone... (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by Anne on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 08:52:29 AM EST
    and now I am back to work, where there is power and heat and easy-peasy internet access, lol.

    Yeah, the power's still out.  We went to our younger daughter's last night for a hot dinner and showers (I think I enjoyed the shower more than even the dinner, though the dinner was excellent), hoping that by the time we got home we'd see lights, but, no.  What's so annoying is that there are way fewer than half as many without power from Sandy as were without power from either the derecho we had this summer or Irene last year, and BGE brought in crews from all over the country in advance of the storm - I just don't see any really good reason why we're still waiting.  I get that they are going to service communities with hundreds of families, and businesses, too, but people on public water should be lower on the priority list than those of us on wells, who lose water when we lose electricity.

    Yes, that was a little rant.  And no, I can't tell you why we never got a generator.  We could have bought one yesterday, but I balked at the $1,000 cost.

    So...got dressed in the dark, with the aid of a flashlight, and did my makeup when I got to work; I know it's Halloween and all, but I didn't want to show up looking like I was ready to go trick-or-treating.

    Fingers crossed the power gets back on today, for a multitude of reasons.

    I see that Mitt Romney still sucks even worse, and is still sucking up even worse; can't say as I missed his welcome-to-the-funeral-home fake smile and his even more fake I-care attitude.  If there was ever any proof how much he is disliked, it has to be Chris Christie's effusive praise for how Obama and the administration have handled the storm; I swear that it was so quiet in the house after the power went out that I could hear Mitt's teeth gnashing.

    Hope we hear from the rest of the east coast contingent, and that everyone is okay.

    Parent

    We got power back (5.00 / 1) (#136)
    by Zorba on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:52:39 AM EST
    last night, about 20 hours after we lost it.  But we're Potomac Edison out this way. They seem to do a better job, even in the sparsely-populated areas, than either BG&E or PEPCO.  

    Parent
    Glad you're okay! (none / 0) (#135)
    by Angel on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 09:28:14 AM EST


    Parent
    Well I can't say I am lucky but for (none / 0) (#139)
    by Amiss on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:05:23 PM EST
    Once I am glad I live in the South. I knew it was bad when we heard the planes from the NAS and of A/C carriers were headed north.  It is being reported that Romney spent $5,000 at a W/M in Ohio claiming it was a drive to have supporters holding a goods drive when in reality it was a cover for a campaign speech.
    They do have some good folks from the Fla. FEMA and hurricane watches in N.J.
    My thoughts and prayers are with all affected.

    Parent
    She may well have had (none / 0) (#59)
    by Zorba on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:55:57 PM EST
    a powered-up lap-top and a USB modem.  For a little while, even up here in the boonies, Mr. Zorba was able to access his email, etc., with his lap-top, and a 4G Verizon USB modem, although even that did not last forever.

    Parent
    Yay (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:12:19 PM EST
    I'm glad things are returning to normal for you.

    Parent
    From our "Your Own Best Parody" file: (5.00 / 6) (#37)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:09:42 PM EST
    The former executive director of the Arabian Horse Association criticizes President Obama for acting "prematurely" by mobilizing relief efforts and speaking to the country, prior to Hurricane Sandy actually making landfall.

    One word can sum up Michael Brown: Jackass.

    Here in Denver... (none / 0) (#43)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:15:57 PM EST
    he co-hosts a radio show with, of all people, David Sirota.

    It's on a station that has some of the worst tea-baggers in the local media. Don't know why Sirota agreed to be KHOW's version of Alan Colmes.

    Parent

    Money. (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:37:59 PM EST
    And his inflated sense of self.  

    Parent
    Maybe he had no other place? (none / 0) (#72)
    by christinep on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:27:40 PM EST


    Parent
    He had a nice gig... (none / 0) (#74)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:32:52 PM EST
    on the liberal station during morning rush hour, and then went to the other station for the PM rush hour with Brownie. Sounded voluntary.

    I liked his morning show better than his replacement, Gloria Neal. Sirota was more political; Neal is more current events-y.

    Parent

    Loving how cable news is crucifying... (5.00 / 0) (#47)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:20:07 PM EST
     Romney with his false Chrysler moving jobs to China lie in Ohio.

    Glad to hear it (none / 0) (#77)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:36:49 PM EST
    I guess it was so big a lie even the MSM could not ignore it.

    Parent
    I think Chrysler/Jeep (none / 0) (#140)
    by Amiss on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 11:09:10 PM EST
    got tired of the lies and put out their own press release.

    Parent
    I am not watching much (none / 0) (#83)
    by MKS on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:01:41 PM EST
    cable now.

    I'll wait on the election returns.  The cable people don't know much anyway.

    Parent

    They're talking about something else... (none / 0) (#97)
    by unitron on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:56:54 PM EST
    ...besides Sandy?

    I must have blinked and missed it.

    Assuming you were being serious and not sarcastic.

    Parent

    Pretty wild and funny (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:48:00 PM EST
    Watching Christie make certain he IS the viable Republican candidate in 2016....and no pesky Republican incumbent to ruin things.  Great 2012 convention speech too Christie :)  Romney must be livid and breathing fire.  What do you get when you cross Ward Cleaver with a dragon?  Watch your back Christie, Willard is a Master of the Universe in some universes.  And if you planned on ever vacationing on Kolob Christie....well, there's always Bali?

    Wouldn't it be lovely if Christie was the reason (5.00 / 3) (#63)
    by Angel on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:11:54 PM EST
    people started turning away from Willard in the last week of the campaign?  

    Oh, and have I told anyone lately how much I despise that lyin' cretin excuse for a human being, Willard Romney?  

    Parent

    I may not care for Christie (4.33 / 3) (#62)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:10:56 PM EST
    but he's not dumb. He can read the polls too. And right now doing what's best for NJ is also best for him in 2016...Romney be damned.

    Parent
    Okay, this is sad (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:14:07 PM EST
    and it makes me glad I'm part of a large family.

    Skeleton of French man found in bed after 15 years.  I found an interesting comment about this -- this  article consists of three sentences and gives credit to three contributors.

    I think editing credit wins.

    Sometimes even family is no guarantee. (none / 0) (#89)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:36:06 PM EST
    My ex's ex-step father's (her Mom's second husband, subsequently divorced) body was recently found in his home in small, rural Wyoming town after being dead for over a year.  

    He was only found when his sister-in-law (estranged brother's wife) got a Christmas card from last year returned and called in a welfare check.

    Still no idea of cause of death (he was in good shape and fairly young at 65).  

    Nobody deserves that kind of fate.  

    Parent

    Agree (none / 0) (#91)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:43:22 PM EST
    Nobody deserves that kind of fate.


    Parent
    Ward Cleaver (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:33:00 PM EST
    I find to be a wrong comparison to Romney.

    He's more Harold Hill as he rolls into River City.

    But without the style and flair (none / 0) (#99)
    by unitron on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:59:19 PM EST
    Seriously, The Romney must be the world's only boring con man.

    Parent
    Seriously, with that creepy smile of his, ... (none / 0) (#105)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:30:06 PM EST
    ... Romney reminds me of Gomez (John Astin) -- sans mustache, of course -- from the old '60s sitcom The Addams Family.

    Parent
    Gomez libel! (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:41:50 PM EST
    Mr. Adams was a kind hearted eccentric, not a raving sociopath.  

    Parent
    Even when he threw daggers ... (none / 0) (#114)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:13:41 PM EST
    ... at the wall to envelope Morticia's live profile, while she stared back at him lovingly?

    ;-D

    Parent

    Ah, Tish. (none / 0) (#118)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:31:45 PM EST
    The reason I took French.  That hand and arm of hers was so kissable...

    Parent
    i take offense at that! (none / 0) (#123)
    by The Addams Family on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:52:04 PM EST


    Parent
    Romney is the most (5.00 / 6) (#84)
    by MKS on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:03:42 PM EST
    secretive and deceitful candidate since Richard Nixon.

    Not nearly as creatively diabolical as Nixon; not nearly as talented.

    But even more of a liar.

    For all Nixon's faults, and they were legion, (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:13:18 PM EST
    he was a smart man with an excellent grasp of foreign policy and the workings of government. Romney, on the other hand has, IMO, a limited kind of smarts, limited to vulture capitalism. Mitt has no street smarts, no people smarts, and, it appears, limited social skills. plus, he is such an obvious prevaricator.

    I hated Nixon, thought he was a crook. And since I was raised by a mother who had hated him since the Helen Gahagan Douglas race, and who always referred to him as "that god-d@mned Nixon," always, I guess I came by that hate naturally.

    Parent

    Ms. Douglas had the last laugh, though. (none / 0) (#103)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:19:42 PM EST
    She was the one who first coined the monicker "Tricky Dick," which stuck on him like glue for the rest of his days.

    And it wasn't just Democrats who learned to hate Nixon. My maternal grandfather was a senior GOP official and former state chair in California in the 1940s and '50s -- an Earl Warren-type of Republican, as it were -- and he first met Nixon right after World War II when Nixon was running for the U.S. House. He admitted to me later, when I was in college, that he just knew in his gut back then that the man would prove to be bad news.

    I distinctly remember during the Watergate scandal how openly critical Grandpa was of Nixon's conduct in office, which of course led to some very spirited arguments with my right-wing-leaning uncle (his own son), who today is a Tea Party Republican.

    Parent

    Interesting analysis (none / 0) (#88)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:21:25 PM EST
    by me using Charlie Cook's numbers who only tracks polling that uses live callers to both landlines and cell phones.

    Going through the seven tossup states:

    Colorado (9)
    Florida (29)
    Iowa (6)
    New Hampshire (4)
    North Carolina (15)
    Ohio (18)
    Virginia (13)

    If you do an RCP type average of just those type polls, Obama leads in every single one of those states. That scenario would lead to Obama winning 347-191 and likely cause a bloodbath within the Republican party.


    Parent

    Wouldn't that be nice? (5.00 / 4) (#93)
    by Angel on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:47:04 PM EST


    Parent
    Internecine GOP bloodbaths are good. (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:20:30 PM EST


    Parent
    CoralGables (none / 0) (#112)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:46:01 PM EST
    you are missing out on the poll blogging gravy train!  There are ways to make a little scratch other than college football you know :P

    Parent
    Ha (none / 0) (#115)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:14:56 PM EST
    and I've never bet on a football game. I do love playing with numbers though.

    Maybe Nate is looking for an intern to do his grunge work. If not, I'm applying for a job with fishcamp. My best skill is tying a bimini twist and an albright special in the dark.

    Parent

    Heh. (none / 0) (#127)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 11:06:38 PM EST
    You've managed to find a topic more alien than college football odds.  Off to Google "bimini twist."  

    Parent
    Those are fishing flies, right? (none / 0) (#128)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 11:30:41 PM EST
    The bimini twist and the albright special?

    Or is the bimini twist a dance move popularized by Bebe Rebozo?

    Parent

    Fishing knots (none / 0) (#132)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:51:50 AM EST
    but funny you should mention Bebe Rebozo. I learned to tie those knots in the dark fishing for snook and tarpon between midnight and sunrise on the bridges that led to Bebe Rebozo's house.

    Parent
    A Bimini twist in the dark (none / 0) (#138)
    by fishcamp on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 01:00:31 PM EST
    would be easy but I don't think I could tie an Albright in the dark but you don't need that knot very often unless you use wire a lot.  We all use the uni knot to tie two pieces of mono together but it only works for up to twice  the line strength.  So if you want to join 20 lb to an 80lb leader you must bimini the 20 lb to double the line to 40lbs and then uni tie it to the 80 lb.  It's much easier than it sounds.  BTW you're welcome anytime CG.

    Parent
    Just back from a walk along Lake Michigan (5.00 / 2) (#100)
    by Towanda on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:00:05 PM EST
    to see the whitecaps, all the way to the horizon -- huge waves -- and the surfers! (Yes, we have surfing clubs on the Great Lakes, but the lakeshore but blocks from my home is a busy harbor, inside a breakwater, so the surfers usually have to head up or down the lakeshore a ways to catch the waves.)

    The colors at dusk were an extraordinary contrast, the waters a cold white, but the sky along the horizon a sapphire blue.

    But I did not stay long, as the winds coming down from Canada (and clashing with the Sandy storm winds coming west, thus the 20-foot-plus waves) have brought us temps more like December than October.  Glad I had gloves and ear warmers!

    I'll be heading back to the lakefront tomorrow, if predictions hold for even higher winds and waves, for more fun.  And perhaps even some sun?

    That sounds so beautiful and awesome, Towanda. (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:44:38 PM EST
    I saw some video footage of the waves in Lake Michigan. I've never seen  waves like that on the Great Lakes. Quite impressive.

    Isn't it interesting how these natural disaster events can be so destructive and so beautiful at the same time? After Mt. St. Helen's blew in 1980 we had months of the most gorgeous, lush sunsets I have ever seen. People would stop their cars on the bridges, on the Interstate, wherever they happened to be, to gaze at the sunsets. The cause was the volcanic ash and light refraction or reflection or something with the ash and the light. Whatever, the sunsets were stunning.

    The ash was also scratching the paint on all the cars and making everyone cough, but, man those sunsets were something to behold.

    Parent

    The videos (none / 0) (#126)
    by Towanda on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 10:03:30 PM EST
    (like a good one on the Chicago Trib site) are awe-inspiring -- and give a sense of the roaring sound we've now heard (inside our house, and inland at least half a mile) all night, all day, and into the night again now -- but cannot capture the sight on site, the span of the lake, with crashing waves as far as the eye can see from side to side and to the horizon line, despite the breakwater.  

    There is no way to break these waves.  Here is a still-photo attempt to capture what the waves are like, even at the shoreline, with the effect of the breakwater.  Beyond the breakwater, the lake must look terrifying right now, with Sandy over it now.  Here is a photo of those waves beyond the breakwater, hitting the Coast Guard site and soaring seven stories high.

    I wish that the photos were later in the day, to capture the colors that we saw at dusk.  Not as spectacular as photos I've seen of those sunsets through volcanic ash, but that light at dusk tonight was more quietly chilling, in every way.

    When I saw those waters today, I had a sense of what the crew of the Edmund Fitzgerald saw.  We're coming up to the anniversary, annually marked with memorials here in the harbor home of its owner as well as with memorials elsewhere on the Great Lakes.  I've seen the gales of November before, but this was beyond anything I've seen after watching my lake almost daily for decades now.  But I read that this gale is similar in some ways to the one that took down that ship -- although this has waves even higher, as that one was in mid-November, when the waters are not as warm (whipping up higher when Sandy's winds hit with the cold front coming down from Canada) as they are now.  So far, no ships lost on the lakes this time, as the warning systems are far better.

    Parent

    Just watched i hour of NBS News with (5.00 / 3) (#110)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:38:03 PM EST
    Brian Williams. The entire broadcast was about the aftermath of Sandy. Everybody, Cuomo, Cantore, all the reporters, everybody talked about climate change.

    They explained that the severe weather events, floods and drought and hurricanes and snowpacalypses and massive rainfall, are here to stay and that they are caused by climate change. They talked about the changes we need to make to cope with and adapt to these changes. They talked about the costs of these changes. They touched on the ever-narrowing window for us to try to curb climate change. They talked about climate change as though it was fact, accepted fact.

    Now if only either or both of the men currently running for the White House could have an equally informed discussion about climate change with the voters.

    If your only sources of information were the Obama and Romney campaigns you would never know that global climate change is a real thing in the world, and you would never know that the United States has poor people.

    What is wrong with this picture?

    Until today you would not have heard of climate (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:25:23 PM EST
    change from Brian Williams either. Took a couple of catastrophic weather events in the media center of NYC to get their attention.

    Parent
    There was a list shown (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by NYShooter on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 12:09:13 AM EST
    on one of the TV programs a while back that listed the hundreds of weather related records broken in 2011: droughts, rainfall, heat waves, etc. And, great events like "Sandy" will, pretty soon, get the public to acknowledge "climate change" is indeed occurring. Since even the Wing nut portion of the Republican Party won't be able to deny it forever watch for the narrative to change.

     "Well, of course the climate is changing, it's been changing for thousands of years. But, it's not "man made" climate change. Therefore, there's no reason for us to change our ways, the climate's gonna change no matter what we do."

    Unless, and until, the educated members of our society can show the other half that pumping billions of tons of toxic poisons into our atmosphere will lead to a  world that is uninhabitable things will go on unabated until Mother Nature makes our decision for us.

    You remember that ad years ago, "it's not nice to fool Mother Nature?" Well, why can't the powers that be use a little creative persuasion like that to lead our population into making more intelligent decisions?

    Parent

    canned goods (5.00 / 1) (#122)
    by ZtoA on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:50:05 PM EST
    Been in Northern California working for a few weeks and only occasionally being able to check in to Sandy news. Its breathtaking. Horrible. What people have to go thru sometimes is just so wrenching. I checked in here to see if the people who regularly post here and those who don't and who live in the hurricane destruction path will check in here. I hope so, soon. We lurkers are pulling for you.

    I understand Romney wants to collect canned goods and have some trucks take them to.....wait for it....New Jersey....(his team targeted that!)....and then "distribute" them. What does that mean? Is his team going to throw canned beans into flooded homes? or onto demolished beaches? Maybe he should expand his territory. "Hey Mitt, throw some of those 'goods' into the flooded subways in NYC! And, yeah, thanks for all your help".

    Discount Doublespeak, er, Double Check (none / 0) (#1)
    by Dadler on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 01:07:48 PM EST
    Once more with a blog piece I just wrote about two television commercial campaigns that have been making me vomit endlessly: State Farm and Capital One. And, again, peace to the east during this beast.  (LINK)

    My vote is officially (none / 0) (#3)
    by CoralGables on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 01:29:45 PM EST
    in the Florida Bank for Obama. Two hours from the back of the line until out the door.

    Someone here the other day said Florida was toast for Obama. The Romney campaign must have missed that message because he's coming to Florida for three events tomorrow. By all recent polling it's extremely tight here again.

    Michelle will be in Miami for a rally on Thursday.

    Florida is all tied up (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by andgarden on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:44:06 PM EST
    Ties in FL traditionally go to the Republican, but the Obama GOTV machine is second to none. I wouldn't count FL out.

    Parent
    Florida (as well as several (5.00 / 2) (#68)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:22:34 PM EST
    other states) would not be so close if the Obama campaign were more forceful in their portrayal of Romney and Ryan's plan for Medicare.  The recent advertisements describing plans to "voucherize" Medicare are better than "eliminating Medicare as we know it."   However, the clearest and most understandable description is  that Romney and Ryan's plan is to end Medicare. (put a big period after it).

    Medicare is a national social insurance program administered by the federal government that guarantees access to heath insurance for those over 65 and other eligible individuals. Medicare  spreads financial risk associated with illness across society to protect everyone eligible under the program.

    A voucher program is premium support of for-profit  insurers that manage risk by adjusting pricing according to the perceived risk--this is not Medicare, it is Couponcare or something they need to get their own name for.   Even the more recently minted version of a dual option is not the same, it is still saving privatizing Ryan's idea, and the electorate should know the true difference.

    Parent

    Most interesting (none / 0) (#39)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:11:28 PM EST
    thing I've read about my old home state is how Scott's vote suppression has boomeranged energizing African American and Latino turnout while not turning people away (since it was tossed).

    Parent
    Voted yesterday, never saw (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by KeysDan on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:51:55 PM EST
    such a long line--took about an hour.  Good sign since this is a D part of Florida.

    Parent
    There's been a Daily Kos diarist who's (none / 0) (#4)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 01:35:20 PM EST
    daily posting early voting numbers in FL, and this diarist said that the Dems overcame their absentee ballot deficit within 2 days (as opposed to 7 in 2008). Someone else pointed out that Romney has 3 campaign appearances in FL tomorrow (while Andrea Mitchell breathlessly reports that Romney is expanding the map by making late ad buys in MN and PA).

    All the polling is trending Obama in FL from Romney advantage to tie recently. Florida is close.

    Parent

    Off the top of my head I'm not sure if the ads (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Farmboy on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:28:32 PM EST
    attacking Obama I've been seeing lately in MN are directly funded by Willard's campaign, but there has been a spate of ads lately implying that Obama is foreign, doubled the size of the gov't, is a socialist, created the deficit, raised taxes by trillions of dollars, and just plain doesn't like America.

    That's not to mention the congressional level GOP and PAC ads that are saying not to vote for Dem candidates because the Dem likes Obama, therefore all of the above.

    And this is in a state that is supposedly out of play. I hate to think what Ohio and Florida is like.

    Parent

    the PollTracker Florida trendline (none / 0) (#10)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:29:12 PM EST
    has been wavering between a +1 advantage for either candidate for the past week. I think it is as close to a tie as it could possible be.

    GOTV extremely important. A friend waited 2 hrs this morning, so there certainly is interest. I think both sides are turning out though.

    Parent

    Recently posted FL early voting diary (none / 0) (#25)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:41:40 PM EST
    here

    Parent
    PA is the only Romney trend line that has been (none / 0) (#21)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:30:18 PM EST
    steadily increasing in the last couple of weeks, for some reason. I can see why he is using it as his source of optimism. I think it is too little too late however. Obama is a solid 3% ahead there int he aggregate poll.

    I have reason to watch that one closely since I told someone here that I would eat my Obama bumper sticker if Obama lost PA!

    Parent

    A little worried that Philly slammed by Sandy (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:35:53 PM EST
    Hope the ship is righted so that election day in Philly is routine.

    Parent
    I'll believe PA (none / 0) (#41)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:13:36 PM EST
    when I see it its almost as  bad as NJ in terms of staying just out of reach of the GOP.

    Parent
    Having been born and (none / 0) (#141)
    by Amiss on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 12:10:40 AM EST
    raised in N. Fla. I can say the reason for the shift is that many latinos have moved to the panhandlers and African Americans remain there. Some counties used to be 9 out of 10 were African American. These people are finding work now on former tobacco plantations located in the area re-purposed to grow mushrooms and tomatoes along with other agriculture.

    Parent
    Charlie Pierce on Romney's disaster leadership (none / 0) (#6)
    by shoephone on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:07:47 PM EST
    Romney pretty much told his own constituents to go to he[[ during the 2006 Mother's Day flood.

    More of that "big government is bad until I really need their help!" stuff.

    I hope Romney's phony rally in Ohio toasts him (5.00 / 3) (#7)
    by womanwarrior on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:09:47 PM EST
    What a jerk pretending to raise money for the flood with his campaign rally.  He should just get out of the way and tell people to donate to Red Cross or whatever charity is already set up to help people.  That phony grandstanding just frosts me.  

    Parent
    Unless the local media starts blasting him (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by shoephone on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:16:08 PM EST
    the voters probably won't understand the difference between his grandstanding and real assistance. The American people are very, very stupid.

    Parent
    I agree about the stupid (none / 0) (#17)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:53:58 PM EST
    But people generally seem to have a very good sense of who is on their side. I think Romney sets off BS detectors all over the place.

    Parent
    The only people who are ... (none / 0) (#57)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:54:19 PM EST
    ... "very, very stupid" are those who are already inclined to be that way.

    Parent
    And you can bet next Wednesday (5.00 / 3) (#11)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:31:35 PM EST
    or before, the Romney campaign will dump whatever canned goods etc they have collected on some local Red Cross offices and never look back.

    Parent
    I especially liked this part... (5.00 / 2) (#102)
    by unitron on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:17:18 PM EST
    ..."The governor's spokesman -- since Romney can't be bothered to comment now that the photo opportunities have dried up even though some residents' basements haven't -- said the state will not consider spending its own money for flood victims until it's clear how much cash the federal government will give."

    The D's should run ads with that back to back with his turn FEMA back over to the states routine.

    Why do the D's always bring a wet noodle to a knife fight?

    They don't have to run negative, nasty ads with chiding voices, they just need to point out the truth about the R's.

    Or as Harry said "I just tell the truth on them and they think it's hell".

    Parent

    More on Oyster Creek (none / 0) (#15)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 02:49:16 PM EST
    from Businessweek.  Sounds like the plant is fine now.  A fairly balanced article on the plant and disaster preparedness in the US generally.

    For the first time in our marriage... (none / 0) (#18)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:12:42 PM EST
    ... my wife and I are disagreeing on how to vote on legalizing marijuana. Just seems like a cash cow for state and municipal governments when raising taxes is not popular in any other context. Wife says MJ is not alcohol, because alcohol is often consumed by conisseurs (sp?) for flavor (wine and microbrews) when no one on this planet smokes pot for it's flavor... i.e. it's just a drug consumed for the high. She has a point, but my response was "so....". Government needs money and there's bigger fish to fry law enforcement wise.

    Would kdog agree with her? Doubt it. (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by oculus on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:14:11 PM EST


    Parent
    I sure wouldn't. (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:54:19 PM EST


    Parent
    I have a different response--- (5.00 / 2) (#95)
    by observed on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:51:04 PM EST
    so what? The point is not whether or not the product is used to get "high", but whether it does harm. Why do you think people drink coffee? Or, more to the point, why do people by caffeine pills?
    I'd say there is some evidence that MJ is associated with some negative consequences, but so is alcohol. The correct response is public education, with accurate information.


    Parent
    I know just as many people... (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 07:08:35 PM EST
    who drink coffee and are just as much connoisseurs of the flavor (like me) as I do beer drinkers.  Same goes for my friends who smoke pot.  Not only taste either, but what strain (Indica or Sativa or blend) it is and what effects it is grown to have.    

    Craft beer is still a very small percentage of all beer produced and consumed in the US.  People drink Coors/Bud/Miller/PBR to get drunk, not for the flavor.  I used to drink the cheapest stuff I could find when I was young--including wine.  

    Parent

    "it's just a drug consumed for the high" (5.00 / 4) (#113)
    by jtaylorr on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:46:33 PM EST
    As a California with a medical card, I can say that this is absolutely, 100% false. Not only do many people like different strains for their taste/effect, but people like me use it to control anxiety & depression.  

    Parent
    absolutely (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by ZtoA on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:39:49 PM EST
    Also sleep problems and pain of all sorts, including nerve pain. There are not many drugs that will work for nerve pain which is why it works for many with back pain. I've had nerve pain in the past and was prescribed opiates which do not work for the pain...they just made me not care so much I was still in pain (and as a side effect I really enjoyed a much fuller range of movies than usual.)

    I have a good friend who grows for the MedMj in NoCalifornia. Perfectly legal - he always went out of his way to get all the state paperwork and followed all the rules. The DEA just "busted" him, tho he has been legal, and destroyed his garden and put him on hold as far as arrests. What a waste of time and tax monies.

    Parent

    Yes, I too have found (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by fishcamp on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:54:59 AM EST
    mj works great for pain but doesn't last very long and since I've never smoked cigarets it's difficult to smoke.  Vaporizers are good but seem to use too much herb and since Fl is not a mm state buying gets tricky.  

    Parent
    Relevant tangent: (none / 0) (#22)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:34:00 PM EST
    Should I buy a $12 6-pack of a fine India Pale Ale as I savor an Obama victory after NH, VA, NC and FL are called early in Obama's favor in the first wave of voting, or should I buy 4 40's of PBR and a 2 liter bottle of Mountain Dew as I drunkenly scream at the TV hoping CO wins the presidency for Obama at 4 am by .6% margin in late returns from SW Denver?

    Parent
    Good question...I find gin to be my all-occassion (none / 0) (#28)
    by ruffian on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 03:48:30 PM EST
    go-to choice!

    Parent
    I say, find something that lasts you until ... (none / 0) (#53)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:47:24 PM EST
    ... 11:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. MDT), when the polls in California and Hawaii close. Because Obama's well up by double digits there and there's really no contest, the networks will undoubtedly call both states almost immediately, and probably do so before the first ballot is even tallied.

    And if the president has already secured at least 211 (or more) electoral votes prior to that moment, then it's only appropriate that the Hollywood elite, the San Francisco values crowd and his island friends combine to put him over the top.

    Parent

    I have something lasting me 'til then (none / 0) (#58)
    by Towanda on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 04:55:41 PM EST
    as I'll be working (teaching a night class) -- and I'm hoping that everything isn't decided before I can get home and catch up on the live-blogging here to see what I missed.  I suspect that my students will be getting a couple of class breaks that night (three-hour classes are to have one break).  

    Then again, I well remember that most of the country had gone to bed in 2000, when I still was up to see that mysterious shift in Florida results. . . .  Fortunately, I have a sibling who also is a night person, and a political junkie, so there was someone to call to say "whaaaa? did you see that?"

    Parent

    The Constitutional Amendment aspect (none / 0) (#76)
    by christinep on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:34:46 PM EST
    Is troubling to a lot of people I've met.  Why was it drawn up as a State Constitutional Amendment rather than a Statute?

    Parent
    Knee jerk response without research: (none / 0) (#78)
    by magster on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:39:09 PM EST
    I think that voters don't have the ability to do statutes via voter amendments, and that the amendment via popular vote is the method by which citizens can bypass the legislature.

    Parent
    Here in Oregon, the anti-tax zealots always (none / 0) (#79)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:41:39 PM EST
    try for a constitutional amendment because it is so much harder to change at a later date. Unlike a statute, an amendment cannot be modified or expanded or contracted or anything by the legislature.

    It can only be changed by another state-wide vote on another amendment.

    Parent

    It does clutter a State Constitution (none / 0) (#82)
    by christinep on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:57:46 PM EST


    Parent
    It does, and it annoys me to see people (none / 0) (#85)
    by caseyOR on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:05:37 PM EST
    screw with the our state constitution. Almost every ballot initiative brought by people, not referred by the legislature, is a constitutional amendment. As a result we have cluttered the constitution with stuff that has no business there.

    So, for years now I have made it a point to refuse to sign petitions for any ballot measure I do not support (no, I don't think everything deserves a vote) and to refuse to sign petitions or vote any ballot measure that amends the constitution.

    The only exception I make is for an amendment that changes a previous bad amendment. For example, when Oregon gets around to trying to repeal the amendment that outlawed marriage equality here, I will gladly sign the nominating petition and campaign for its repeal and vote for its repeal.

    Parent

    Agreed. (none / 0) (#116)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:22:43 PM EST
    We need only look to the turbulent history underscoring the 18th and 20th amendments of our own U.S. Constitution, to note the serious folly of enshrining constitutionally that which should otherwise be enacted statutorily, were the people in their collective wisdom to somehow see fit to do so.

    Parent
    The constitutional amendment aspect (none / 0) (#98)
    by sj on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:57:57 PM EST
    is always troubling.  I used to worry about that.  Now I just deal. The State Constitution is a huge mess.

    Parent
    There are a few CBS/NYT polls due (none / 0) (#130)
    by lilburro on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 12:13:16 AM EST
    tomorrow, run by Quinnipiac.  I couldn't find the numbers for Virginia and Florida, however, the San Jose Mercury offers a sneak peak of Ohio running a story with NYT bylines:

    In Ohio, according to the latest poll of likely voters by Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News, Obama runs nearly even with Romney among white voters who do not have college degrees.

    That helps explain why he appears slightly better positioned there in the closing week of the campaign than in Florida and Virginia, where the polls found that Romney holds an advantage of about 30 percentage points among those voters.

    The presidential contest has become an intense state-by-state fight, with the climate in Ohio shaped by months of efforts by the Obama campaign to portray Romney as a job killer who opposed the president's decision to bail out the auto industry.

    Obama, who has a 50 percent to 45 percent edge there, also appears to be benefiting from an economic recovery in Ohio that is running ahead of the national recovery.

    So it sounds like FL and VA are tied, by Obama looks pretty strong in Ohio.

    We'll get more news tomorrow, but if I am reading this right (and the other statistic seems to narrow likely voters to very attentive likely voters, not sure what that means, exactly) it is good news for Obama.

    Tuesday Open Thread | 142 comments (142 topical)

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