McCain Can't Win With Six Remaining Toss-Ups Alone

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:26:25 PM EST
Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)

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CNN reports:

According to CNN's latest analysis of the electoral map, only six states are up for grabs (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida) and they were all won by President Bush in 2004. That means even if McCain were to go 6-for-6 in the current tossup states, he would still fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.

As I noted here, CNN's John King believes McCain has to take a big blue state from Obama. McCain doesn't seem to be following King's advice. He and Palin both will be back in Colorado next week. Obama also will continue to fight for Colorado -- Sen. Joe Biden will spend two days here, his first visit since the convention.

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McCain Can't Win With Six Remaining Toss-Ups Alone | 35 comments (35 topical)

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Virginia, Virginia, Virginia (5.00 / 0) (#6)
by andgarden on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:37:15 PM EST

And also Colorado.

CNN acknowledges now what most of the rest of us have known for weeks.

It bears repeating (5.00 / 2) (#13)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:50:40 PM EST

the cable networks benefit if the race is thought to be close


: Same reason (none / 0) (#36)
by cal1942 on Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 02:50:46 AM EST

they were gung ho for the war in Iraq. Helped with ratings big time for a spell and that's bucks.

Well, it's been said, and I've often said (none / 0) (#9)
by scribe on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:44:29 PM EST

that if you want the news early, go to the internet.

Sometimes, its three or four days early. Sometimes even longer. Especially when (like I do) you listen to foreign media and get the news without the screening that the networks put everything through.

I like getting the news early if only because I can look smart by telling people how something is going to turn out because I've already read or heard how on the net.


What is Obama's cash (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by BackFromOhio on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:13:06 PM EST

advantage exactly? Thanks.

: September numbers will come out (none / 0) (#25)
by MKS on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:23:43 PM EST

October 20. They will be huge. Obama has added something like one million new contributors...And if the average contribution is $90-100, then voila'.
Obama is outspending McCain more than 2-1 and in some cases 3-1 and 4-1 for ads on television.....

McCain can win (none / 0) (#1)
by scribe on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:30:41 PM EST

if the Dems don't show up and/or get out their vote, thinking instead it's already done and won.

Also, an interesting article in today's NYT on early voting in Colorado.

I want to tell my grandkids (5.00 / 0) (#3)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:33:57 PM EST

what it was like to vote for the first African-American president....don't you?

Seriously, every voter this year gets to be a part of history. (Well, a history more interesting than usual, at least)


Did you see that 106 year old Black women (5.00 / 0) (#23)
by samtaylor2 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:03:38 PM EST

Go to the polls the other day. Really cool image.


: I missed that (none / 0) (#31)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 06:55:18 PM EST

I can only imagine what she must be feeling, having been born in 1902.

<crickets> (none / 0) (#4)
by Melchizedek on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:35:21 PM EST

: wow. really? (5.00 / 0) (#10)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:46:16 PM EST

meaningless to you, huh?
(It's not the basis for my vote, but I bet it will get people to the polls. Notwithstanding your bizarre denial of the historic nature for this election)

Contradicted by the new FL poll (none / 0) (#8)
by andgarden on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:40:17 PM EST

which has bad news.


luckily, Obama (none / 0) (#12)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:48:12 PM EST

has many different avenues from which to win, other than FLA.

Still, I like that they aren't getting complacent....pretty tough order when bets are getting paid early.


If McCain wins anything near 22% AA (5.00 / 3) (#16)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:52:58 PM EST

support in ANY state I will not only eat my hat but my whole wardrobe.


: You and me (none / 0) (#35)
by cal1942 on Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 02:44:05 AM EST

both captain.

Yup, that one (none / 0) (#15)
by andgarden on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:52:37 PM EST

Look at the "already voted" column. Huge margin of error, but it does contradict the findings in other states.

And as for McCain getting 22% of the black vote. Well, I think that's very unlikely myself, but SUSA has found that pretty consistently in Florida, and it might have something to do with the difficulty in classifying race in the state (how do black latinos self-identify?)

Florida is a difficult state to poll, but using the same methodology, SUSA doesn't find good news for Obama there.


: Early voting (none / 0) (#22)
by TheRealFrank on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:21:12 PM EST

I read that registered Republicans had 200,000 more absentee ballot requests in FL.
I'm not sure why that happened, but I assume that explains why early voting shows a McCain lead there.

: The really odd thing (none / 0) (#34)
by cal1942 on Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 02:41:29 AM EST

about the SUSA polls in Florida is that they've never polled Obama ahead at any time while other polls have determined an Obama lead much of the time in the last month.
I've noticed SUSA polls in other states that are against the trend of other polls. Wish I had kept track of those states.
Cause for concern anyway. Maybe there's some internal party polling that's sending both Obama and Clinton to Florida for at least two days next week while McCain's only scheduled there for one day.
Florida is so atypical that campaign planning must be a nightmare.

BTD, what's up with the Fl. polls? (none / 0) (#27)
by MKS on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:26:28 PM EST

Finish the brief already and tell us if you agree with a 22% African American vote for McCain in Florida.


: No way (none / 0) (#29)
by robrecht on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 05:54:59 PM EST

Can McCain add? (none / 0) (#2)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:32:30 PM EST

Cause sometimes it seems they cannot

They're starting to do Dem strategery (none / 0) (#18)
by Exeter on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:02:21 PM EST

of 2000 and 2004.


: seriously! (none / 0) (#19)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:03:05 PM EST

Still a decent chance McCain could win (none / 0) (#14)
by Exeter on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 01:52:32 PM EST

I know the polling looks great, but I'm not sold on Virginia being a lock for Obama. That said, I think it will be a blowout for Obama nationwide and think he probably will win Virginia as well West Virginia and many other states that haven't been blue for a long time.

There's got to be a demographic change there (none / 0) (#17)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:02:12 PM EST

No doubt VA's demographics are changing (none / 0) (#20)
by Exeter on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:06:15 PM EST

rapidly, dripping down blue paint from Northern Virginia. My only concern is that there is not a Bradley effect in the NOVA suburbs and other suburbs around the country.


I don't think so. (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 02:08:27 PM EST

This election has really not been about race. There are plenty of idealogical differences that people can point to during polling.


I still find it amazing that a state that barely (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by kempis on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 03:25:03 PM EST

chose Jim Webb over George "Macaca" Allen two years ago could be considered a lock for Obama. As midnight approached and it was too close to call, I remember thinking "What is wrong with those folks? Aren't they embarrassed to vote for George Allen?" Apparently they were not.

But Virginia must have changed an awful lot these past two years.


: Fact is (none / 0) (#30)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 06:52:08 PM EST

macaca didn't win.

Does John McCain suffer from Post Traumatic Stress (none / 0) (#28)
by JohnRJ08 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 04:24:58 PM EST

John McCain was a high-strung young man long before he disappointed his father, Admiral John McCain Jr., with his dismal academic performance at the Naval Academy. Graduating 894th in his class of 899 midshipmen made him a man with something to prove. His short, stocky frame was well-suited to the cramped cockpit of a jet fighter, but it didn't help him live up to the imposing image he needed, so he over-compensated by being physically tough and taking risks, especially when he flew. At the Academy, he had been a boxer and wrestler who was often in trouble with superior officers. When you put this kind of A-type personality into cruel captivity for five years, take away all of his dignity and torture him into betraying his country's Code of Conduct, it's going to do some serious psychological damage that doesn't just go away. In my opinion, McCain shows all the symptoms of someone suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. His manic body language, with constantly clinched fists and jutting thumbs, rapidly blinking eyes, tightly clinched jaw and grimace-like smile are physical manifestations of psychological issues. McCain had a well-earned reputation in the Senate for being ill-tempered and profane, and his inability to control his emotions was painfully evident in the last debate. In the last five years, McCain has also been faced with battling a lethal form of skin cancer, which cannot help but add to his stress levels. It is my belief that John McCain's erratic choices during his campaign have been an expression of his emotional duress. Even some of his long-time supporters have described him as being "tightly coiled." Whether you're a Republican, Democrat or Independent, you have to be somewhat concerned about a man with these issues being put in charge of our country at such a fragile time. Yes, John McCain is a fighter. The problem is that he has been fighting all his life and doesn't know when to stop.

Nah, he's just a crotchety old man (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by coigue on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 06:57:06 PM EST

that cannot hide his true orneryness for more than 20 minutes (as evidenced by all three debates).

Heck, my 70 year old pop doesn't even try.


The paragraph is your friend. n/t (none / 0) (#33)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 07:15:49 PM EST

: LOL (none / 0) (#37)
by coigue on Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 01:32:10 PM EST

You're funny!

I have been thinking the same thing for a while (none / 0) (#38)
by erika on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:00:09 PM EST

I wrote a blog on this very issue, www.erikacotter.blogspot.com I have some studies related to this in it. check it out
